Training Financial Modeling and Decision Analysis

Financial modeling covers a wide area from simple sheets to add up expenses to sophisticated risk modeling for projects. This course of FINANCIAL MODELING & DECISION ANALYSIS will start by introducing the use of powerful simulation software (@RISK and Risk Simulator) in financial analysis and simulation. These newly gained skills will be applied in the construction of basic company valuation models, before incorporating risk modeling, scenarios, optimisation and forecasting into the models, and finally exercising the real option analysis for real case studies.

Through a proven step-by-step approach, delegates will leave this intensive two-day course with the ability to effectively apply modeling techniques easily in a wide range of practical scenarios for better decision making process and result.

DAY ONE

Introduction to @RISK

Getting started with @RISK
Understanding distribution and stochastic model
Finding confidence interval for expected profit: Exercising with News person problems
Tornado graphs and scenario for simulating new product, Hippo example
Exercise: Determining Plant Capacity
Utility theory and simulation
Interpreting tornado graph : exercised by simulating development of new drug

Financial Statement, Cash Flow and Valuation Modelling

Three stage valuation model
Modeling Key Drivers of Firm Value
Incorporating Simulation into Proforma Models

Case Studies:

Forecasting Growth of Grocery Market
Modeling the Profitability of Batmobile Sales
Simulation new product under certainty of market variables (quantity, price, competitor, market shares, etc).

Project finance and project appraisal models

IRR and NPV Distribution
Interpreting the probability of return and risk

Case Study:

Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
Pharmaceutical and Biotech Deal Structuring

DAY TWO

Optimization

The lingo of optimization
Optimization under uncertainty
Portfolio Optimization
Bootstrapping to Future Annual Returns
Minimize Risk of Portfolio (Standard Deviation)
Finding the Efficient Frontier
Minimizing the Probability of a Loss
An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms
Maximizing the Sharpe Ratio
Minimizing Downside Risk

Case Study:

Stochastic Optimization and Valuation Models to Evaluate the Credit Risk of Corporate Restructuring
Efficient frontier
Discrete project selection
Continues portfolio optimization

Real Option Analysis

What Are Real Options?
The Real Options Solution in a Nutshell
Issues to Consider
Implementing Real Options Analysis

Case Study:

Value a Lease on a Gold Mine
Understanding Risk and Optimal Timing in a Real Estate Development Using Real Options Analysis
Manufacturing and Sales in the Automotive Aftermarket

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course has been designed for: